NawFuL Notes

Monday, October 28, 2002


If you were one of the thousands (or maybe hundreds...or tens) of people reading these postings, wondering what happend to the Junior Bro, here's your answer: I've been to the East Bay, to the South Bay, to the East Bay, to the Sierra, back to the South Bay, to the San Mateo Coast, to the East Bay, to the South Bay, to the East Bay, to Tahoe, back to the East Bay, and back to the South Bay. NOW I BET YOU'RE SORRY YOU ASKED!!!

Unfortunately, I missed the all too brief opportunity to gloat over my lead over the Senior Bro. That all evaportated on Sunday. No matter how many splits we get, we seem to only move one game per week or not at all. In fact, I don't think the bros have had a two game swing at all this season. Well, I knew four-peating wouldn't be easy.

The 49ers have won three of four since the bye week, but that only masks a glaring weakness: third down defense. The 49ers are alarmingly and consistently surrendering large chunks of yardage on third and long, allowing teams to convert their third downs this season a whopping 50% of the time. Injuries can be blamed for some of this, but it has been a problem which has been increasing during the entire season. Opposing quarterbacks on 3rd and 15 are instantly transformed into Joe Montana, slicing through the 49ers defense like a knife through hot butter. Scheme must at least be partly to blame. The 49ers sit back in these deep zone coverages, letting the receivers run unincumbered through the middle. There are reasons an opponent gets in a third and long situation, and I don't think it's because the 49ers were sitting in deep zones on first and second downs. Attention Jim Mora: GO WITH WHAT WORKS, TRY A LITTLE BUMP AND RUN!

The Raiders are floundering, but I can forgive them for their loss to Kansas City. The Raiders are playing in the toughest division in football, with even cellar-dweller Kansas City being capable of making the playoffs. The Raiders offense has suddenly vanished, but I'm betting they'll find it next Sunday against the 49ers. The Niner's defense has a habit of letting that happen.

Silver and Blackout question: If the Raiders didn't get a sellout for this week's game, would it be blacked out on local TV? After all, this is the 49ers local market too, and they're the visitors.

Emmit Smith got the rushing record, but for my money, the best running back in the modern era was Barry Sanders. He gained all his yards with a mediocre offensive line and, for that matter, with DETROIT! If Sanders hadn't retired, Emmit wouldn't have been able to catch him for ten years.

Thank you Cincinnati for being consistent.

Thank you Arizona for continuing to be the Cardinals - making just enough mistakes to lose.

I think maybe I need to START changing my picks at the last minute.

Junior Bro 8:55:00 AM

Sunday, October 27, 2002

Five splits

Look out, all you Gehlke Bros. Football faithful... the Bros. have five splits this week. First time that's happened since the first week of the season, when we had six. With Sean up by a game, this could be a breakout week for one of us. Or, we could wind up tied again.

I'm worried about the Raiders playing in Kansas City. I picked the Chiefs, despite the fact that the Raiders have beaten them what? Five or six straight? The Raiders have lost two straight, which is bad news for a team that can get into streaks as they do. They'd better snap out of it fast, as they play at San Francisco next week...

Glenn 8-D 10:12:00 AM

Sunday, October 13, 2002

Welcome to "Ben's Football Predictions"

(Brought to you by Ben, the points leader through six weeks of Gehlke Bros. Football Picks action...)

It's very stupid for Atlanta beating the Giants. The Giants are better than Atlanta. Football isn't stupid, though.

Now, about Indianapolis beating Baltimore, it's a big bad no-no to lose to a weak team. Football isn't a big bad no-no, though.

Now, what have we here? According to my paper, Dallas has beaten Carolina, and just for that Senior Bro Glenn (my Dad) loses one more game in his streak this week. (Victory dance time...)

And my paper says that Minnesota beat Detroit, which is another game that my Dad lost. Now take a look at Green Bay at New England. Well, poor Dad lost that game too, and I won. Now look at Jacksonville and Tennessee, for instance. That's one of Dad's very big no-nos. Luckily, I picked Tennessee, 'Cause they won, I get another game toward my three-point lead.

(The moral to this story: Don't change your picks at the last minute!)

Glenn 8-D 5:06:00 PM

Must write this 1,000 times...

I will not change my picks at the last minute...
I will not change my picks at the last minute...
I will not change my picks at the last minute...
I will not change my picks at the last minute...
I will not change my picks at the last minute...
I will not change my picks at the last minute...

...OK, well, we get the point.

Glenn 8-D 4:54:00 PM

Kicking myself...

The Senior Bro is bummed. Really bummed! Not that I split with Sean in this week's picks, but that I did a major no-no before deadline time and switched THREE of my predictions. Well, guess what? All THREE of the teams I switched to LOST!

I was going to go out on a limb and pick the Rams over the Raiders, despite the 20-point spread. Everyone I talked with convinced me that I shouldn't. Still I planned to pick the Lambs. Then at the 11th hour (actually 9:30 this morning) I decided to follow my head and pick the "better" team. Naturally, in the NawFuL, no team can reamin undefeated this far into the season. It's an unwritten law.

And silly me, I also thought (at the last minute) that the Redskins could win at home. Of course, they didn't. AND I thought that Detroit might actually stand a chance of beating hapless Minnesota, regardless of having to play in the Metrodome. Well, I'll let you fill in the details on that one.

So here we are, at the end of Week 6, and Ben will have a THREE GAME LEAD over both the Bros. This is a very sad day in Bro history -- being outclassed by the juniorest member of our prognosticating trio. Perhaps we should change the name of our site to "Ben's Football Predictions, Featuring the Gehlke Bros."

...Or maybe we just ought to pull out some new designer paper bags.

Glenn 8-D 4:53:00 PM

Sunday, October 06, 2002

And Ben says...

"The Raiders having a hard time? Not quite. They're almost as good as the Broncos right now." (Glenn says: Actually, they're BETTER than the Broncos right now, as they are 4-0 and the Broncos are 4-1, along with the previously unbeaten San Diego Chargers.)

"How do you know that they're better? They haven't even played next week's game."

(Actually, none of the teams has played next week's game. If they had, I would be guaranteed a good week in my picks next week! But we digress...)

"The Raiders had a bye week. That doesn't make them better than the Broncos."

(No, not necessarily. I guess we'll have to see what happens when the Raiders and the Broncos go head-to-head twice later in the season.)

"And what's up with the Niners? How are they? 5-0?"

(No, the Niners would be 3-1, with their only loss coming at home against Denver. The Niners are looking better right now. But we'll see where they are at the end of Week 17.)

Glenn 8-D 8:10:00 PM

Getting more NawFuL by the week

What's with the Rams? Yes, I know I've beated this topic to death, but I don't think anyone -- least of all the Rams -- thought the defending Stupid Brawl runners-up would be 0-5 and counting. If you can't get it together for the Cowboys and the Niners, then who are you going to get up for? It has been pointed out in the media that since the 1940s only one team that started the regular season 0-4 has made the playoffs. That doesn't bode well for the Lambs...

Niners rock: The 49ers did what they were supposed to do against the Rams. A blowout looks good, and will boost the team's confidence as it strives for the postseason. Looks like San Francisco is in the driver's seat in the NFC West.

Those slacker Steelers... Pittsburgh is swooning and it's only October. How about that big 1-4 record! Kordell or not, this team is in a world of hurt.

Paper Bag Bowl: In chatting with the Junior Bro a couple of weeks ago we decided that the caliber of this year's expanded league merits the inclusion of a Paper Bag Bowl. The criteria: We'll nominate the top two most embarrassing and disappointing teams at the end of the season for dubious honors here at NawFuL Notes. My favorites at the end of Week 5 are the Rams and the Steelers. A collective record of 2-8 ought to win some sort of award, if not one anyone wants. Yes, the Lions and the Vikings are pretty NawFuL right now, but no one expected them not to be. No, the Rams and Steelers have accomplished what few other teams have -- coming in with nothing less than Stupid Brawl expectations only to see their hopes dashed early in the game.

So much for the early lead: Speaking of having hopes dashed, the Senior Bro. has encountered some bad luck to squander a 2-game lead in the Gehlke Bros. picks competition. Thanks a lot, Dallas! You guys couldn't hold a lead against the Giants if someone put handles on it for you. Now it's time to regroup for the next 12 weeks of the season.

Glenn 8-D 8:02:00 PM

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