NawFuL Notes

Saturday, December 31, 2005

Now that it's over...

First of all, a well-deserved congratulations to the Junior Bro on recapturing the Surfy. If there is a single reason one can point to for why he is this year's Gehlke Bros. Football champ, it is his consistency week in and out. He did a good job of nailing most of his picks each week, even in those difficult weeks when it seemed there were no clearcut choices.

That said, I can find many reasons for why I'm writing this post instead of celebrating my own three-peat. Chief among them was a disastrous Thanksgiving weekend that saw me go 1-7 in a wild lineup of splits. You can't buy luck that bad.

But forgetting that one week (and boy I'd love to forget it) there were other problems:

1) Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Carolina -- The NFC South hurt me in a big way. I can look back on most weeks and see predictions for those teams that went the other way. Everyone has a team they can't figure out, but it's tough to weather an entire division that won't cooperate.

2) Chicago -- Here was a good team whose bandwagon I failed to hop aboard. Their success cost me a few games.

3) Monday night -- I hate Monday Night Football. No offense to ABC, but my success on Monday predictions has been nothing short of abysmal the past three seasons. I won my 2003 championship without winning a single Monday split. I had a couple in each of the past seaons. But I went 2-5 in Monday splits in 2005, which is simply unacceptable.

4) Changed picks -- Will I never learn? More often than not I get burned when I swap a prediction at the last second because "a little bird" whispered in my ear. Too often that "bird" is the Arizona Cardinals or some equally talentless team. I can think of two significant splits I switched earlier in the season that cost me games. Probably didn't amount to a hill of beans in the final standings, but it didn't help at a time when I was closing in on a tie.

5) Never leading -- Sean started the season out front and never trailed, although I got as close as one game (Week 6). Psychologically, that has an impact on how you make predictions. And then we had two straight weeks without a single split, which preceded the Thanksgiving feast. There's no guarantee we wouldn't have split all those games anyhow, but the number was probably higher on Thanksgiving week because I was three games back at that stage and getting impatient and tried to "make something happen." Big mistake. Impatience in this game is not a good thing.

6) Lack of upsets -- I staked my hope for winning the season on there being a few more surprises on the gridiron. Too often this year the favorite won the close games, so picking the slight underdog just kept me in the hole.

7) Luck (or lack thereof) -- All the strategy means nothing without luck on your side. I definitely had it in 2003 and 2004, but I was overdrawn at the luck bank this season.

So... I have my work cut out for me next season. Meanwhile, congrats again to Sean, the 2005 Gehlke Bros. Football champion.

Glenn 8-D 11:14:00 AM

Sunday, December 11, 2005

At least...

...I won't lose three or more games in the standings this week. That's tough to do when there are only two splits at stake! Man, my season has crashed and burned in a big way since Thanksgiving. Seems like I've found new ways to lose the past two weekends, reaching the nadir on Monday night when my Eagles got pasted by the Seahawks in the snow. That game wasn't even competitive, and the Eagles never scored.

I'd like to believe the old mantra that it ain't over till it's over, but realistically it's gonna be near impossible to overcome a 12-game deficit in four weeks. Even if I get lucky and win both of today's games ? a huge if ? I'd still have to pick up 3-4 games a week through the end of the season just to tie.

Maybe I need to look at this like the Buffalo Bills, who could still win the division or the first-round draft pick depending on their performance down the stretch. At least in the NawFuL they reward poor performance with a top draft pick at the end of the season.


Glenn 8-D 10:42:00 AM

Saturday, December 03, 2005

Oh, Those 49ers!

The 49ers should go back to the throwback uniforms. They're 1-0 in those 80's era clothes and 1-9 without. It must be the clothes, right!

Seeing Jose Cortez attempt to kick a field goal in this last game is a reminder that Joe Nedney is the team's MVP this season. If they had had Nedney instead of Cortez back in 2001, when the offense was a bit better, he could have bought them at least two or three extra victories.

Eight teams in the NFL are 3-8 or worse... YUCK! I read recently that if the teams have the same record at the end of the season, the draft position is based first on strength of schedule with head-to-head competition as the tiebreaker. If the 49ers end of tied with the Texans at the end of the season, the 49ers would most likely get the higher pick based on their weaker opponents winning percentage. That said, the game with the Texans could still be huge, but a couple wins could bump the 49ers from the first to the ninth or tenth pick in the draft.

Junior Bro 6:28:00 PM

I'm Not Here To Gloat... Much!

Wow, seven of eight. I didn't see that one coming. The amazing thing was that half of those splits were overtime games, and really could have gone either way. The Rams-Texans game I should have lost, but won, and the San Diego game I should have won, but lost.

This thing is still far from over. I still have vivid memories of being down four games during the last week of the season, winning five of six splits to tie it up, and taking the trophy with the playoff tiebreakers.

Junior Bro 6:18:00 PM

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